OVERVIEW
Another way to analyze fiscal data over time is via Time Series Analysis. Time series analysis enables public administrators and policy analysts to examine values of a variable over equally spaced intervals of time (e.g., income figures monthly or yearly). Using times series analyses, administrators and analysts can discern patterns in the values that then enable them to forecast
future values based on historical and existing patterns.
A time series plot allows an analyst to look for (1) outliers and sudden shifts in data patterns, (2) unusual observations or shifts, and (3) long-term increase or decrease in the data values. A trend plot also will show whether the data pattern is linear, or nonlinear, as the time series plot. Then,
the question to be asked is, why?
INSTRUCTIONS
• To successfully complete this assignment, refer to the Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment Guide found on the Research Paper: Simple Time
Series Analysis Assignment page.
• For this assignment, you will compute and interpret a Simple Time Series Analysis called “Exponential Smoothing” and write a four-page report stating your findings, including chart(s).
• Once the plot is completed, you will write a four-page report, including chart(s), interpreting the findings.
• This is a research assignment designed to test your ability to carefully research, effectively organize, and concisely communicate a nuanced understanding of the concepts and issues raised in the assignment. While the minimum page limit is short (as is often the case in public policy/public administration briefings), you are expected to craft efficient, highly substantive papers. You are expected to comport with the highest writing standards.
