Estimative Probability Terms ICD 203.png
o Distinguish level of “confidence” from likelihood of a development.
Distinguish between underlying intelligence information and analysts’ assumptions and judgments.
o Assumptions are suppositions used to frame or support an argument.
o Judgments are conclusions base don underlying intelligence information, analysis and assumptions.
o State key assumptions explicitly and explain implications if assumptions are incorrect.
o Identify–as appropriate–indicators that would alter judgments
Incorporates analysis of alternatives.
o Systematic evaluation of differing hypotheses to explain events or phenomena, explore near-term outcomes, and image possible futures to mitigate surprise and risk.
o Alternative include analysis of assumptions, likelihood, and implications for US interests.
o Especially important when low probability events could have high impact results.
o Identify–as appropriate–indicators that would affect likelihood of identified alternatives
Demonstrates customer relevance and addresses implications.
o Add value by addressing prospects, contexts, threats, or factors affecting opportunities for action.
(6) Uses clear and logical argumentation
o Clear, main analytic message up front.
o If offering multiple judgments, identify main analytic message that draws collectively from all of them.
o Judgments supported by evidence and coherent reasoning.
o Language and syntax should convey meaning unambiguously.
o Internally consistent and acknowledge supporting and contrary information.
(7) Explain changes to or consistency of analytic judgments.
o Explain how new information or different reasoning led to different judgments
o Recurrent products note changes in judgments
o Significant differences in analytic judgments—such as between two IC elements—should be considered and brought to customers’ attention.
(8) Makes accurate judgments and assessments
o Apply expertise and logic based on information available and known information gaps.
o Do not avoid difficult judgments.
o Message received should correspond to what analyst intended .
o Reduce ambiguity by addressing likelihood, timing, and nature of the outcome or development.
