Directions
For this assignment, please write an initial post of 275 words answering the following questions below use 3 references below in addition to any outside references. Use links for readings
Question
The readings this week focus on threats and risks to the nation. The readings present many natural and human-caused threats and risks. Based on the readings, write a 250-word initial discussion post on:
Which category of threats (Manmade or Natural) do you think are the most critical to U.S. security? support your work with credible sources. Your initial post is due by
Readings
Global Risk Constellations
The World Economic Forum (WEF) – with the goal of providing “the most comprehensive set of insights for decision-makers” – identifies the most significant global risks for the next ten years in its most recent report. After assessing 28 long-term risks worldwide that fall within five major groups – i.e., economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological – the WEF concludes that “interstate conflict with regional consequences is viewed as the number one global risk in terms of likelihood, with water crises ranking highest in terms of [potential] impact.” Other significant global risks in the WEF’s top tier, both in terms of likelihood and impact, are: extreme weather events, spread of infectious diseases, weapons of mass destruction, failure of climate-change adaption, and critical information infrastructure breakdown. According to WEF’s experts, societal and geopolitical risks overshadow other global risks for 2015, and environmental risks are more prominent than economic risks worldwide.
The WEF report (required lesson reading) assesses today’s global risk landscape and highlights the need for comprehensive strategies to effectively address “the most pressing societal issues, as societies are under [the] threat from economic, environmental and geopolitical risks.” Furthermore, the WEF report examines three key “risk constellations” – i.e., the interplay between geopolitics and economics, urbanization in developing countries, and governance of emerging technologies – and raises the “awareness of the dangers from the interconnected nature of global risks”; thus, calling for a collaborative effort from multiple stakeholders to properly mitigate them.
• World Economic Forum: Global Risks 2018. 13th Ed.
The textbook reading and another required reading for this lesson focuse on risk constellations as they specifically relate to national and homeland security of the U.S.:
• Frank J. Cilluffo & Joseph R. Clark: “Thinking About Strategic Hybrid Threats – In Theory and in Practice,” in: PRISM 4, No. 1 (2013), pp. 47-63.
• Cross-disciplinary Perspectives on Homeland and Civil Security, Chapter 1: “Examining the Strategic Hybrid Threat: Technology, Terrorism, Transnational Criminal Organizations, and Old Enemies after 2015”
Current Potential Homeland Security Threats
Watch the U.S. Senate Select Committee of Intelligence Hearing of May 11, 2017.
International Lessons Learned for Counterterrorism Efforts
Watch the following Washington Journal talk with former National Security Council Director Rick Nelson about potential threats to the U.S. homeland: Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Efforts
Topics included lessons learned from the terrorist attack in Paris on the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in January 2015; U.S. efforts to prepare against terrorist attacks; and U.S. strategy to fight ISIS militants in Syria and Iraq.
Multifaceted Leadership
The multifaceted character of the threat landscape, the mission space, and the organization of homeland security calls for versatile leaders in the field. Those leaders must be capable of reconciling a variety of perspectives and able to tolerate and integrate a lot of ambiguity, contributing to the unity of effort approach of DHS.
Homeland Security crises may be self-organizing, complex, and emerging, but those who tackle them do not simply emerge. They need to be developed into leaders before the crisis. The lesson reading from the textbook:
• Cross-disciplinary Perspectives on Homeland and Civil Security, Chapter 9: “The Leadership LEAP: A New Approach for Homeland Security”
presents such a model, drawing from a large set of literature and knowledge from leadership research. It turns out most important leader traits include the need to be: legitimate and have authentic power; able to make ethical decisions when confronted with choices and/or dilemmas, and under stress; affective, with the ability to create as well as have trust, and create vision with others; and persistent, showing determination in achieving goals and objectives. Legitimate-ethical-affective-persistent then gives the model the acronym “LEAP.” The following table summarizes and illustrates the different leadership characteristics from the LEAP model:
Lesson 2: Key Risk Constellations and Assessing the Strategic Hybrid Threat
Lesson Overview
This lesson reviews current key risk constellations as well as ways of assessing the strategic hybrid threat, and how it relates to homeland security. The lesson also addresses international lessons learned for counterterrorism and the qualities needed of leaders in the homeland security enterprise, addressing the multifaceted threat landscape.
Lesson Objectives
By the end of this lesson, you should be able to:
• Describe key risk constellations and methodologies to identify them
• Understand strategic hybrid threats and how they relate
• Cite international lessons learned for counterterrorism
• Describe the unity of effort approach of DHS
• Define the components of multifaceted leadership
Links for readings
• Cross-disciplinary Perspectives on Homeland and Civil Security, Chapter 1: “Examining the Strategic Hybrid Threat: Technology, Terrorism, Transnational Criminal Organizations, and Old Enemies after 2015”
• Cross-disciplinary Perspectives on Homeland and Civil Security, Chapter 9: “The Leadership LEAP: A New Approach for Homeland Security”
• Cross-disciplinary Perspectives on Homeland and Civil Security, Chapter 13: “The Scientific Status of New Security Studies: A Critical Search for Epistemic Identity of Homeland and Civil Security Research”
• Cilluffo, Frank J and Joseph R. Clark 2013, “Thinking About Strategic Hybrid Threats – In Theory and in Practice.” PRISM 4, No. 1, pp. 47-63.
• Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Statement For The Record, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Daniel R. Coats, Director of National Intelligence, February 13, 2018
• World Economic Forum: Global Risks 2018. 13th Ed.
