Explaining Trends in Crime Rates
Crime experts consider the explanation of crime trends one of their most important goals. Yet it is difficult to point to a single explanation for changes in the crime rate. Let’s look at a few of the most important social, ecological, and policy factors that are considered to be influences on the direction taken by crime rates.
Age Structure of the Population
The age composition of the population has a significant influence on crime trends. Teenagers have extremely high crime rates, whereas seniors rarely commit crime. The greater the proportion of teens in the population, the higher the crime rate and the greater the number of persistent offenders. When the “baby boomers” hit their teens in the mid-1960s, the crime rate skyrocketed. Because the number of senior citizens is expanding and the population is aging, crime rates may remain relatively low for some time.
Immigration
Immigration has become one of the most controversial issues in American society, and some people believe that immigrants should be prevented from entering the country because they have a disruptive effect on society. Research suggests the opposite, however, and some scholars, such as Harvard sociologist Robert Sampson, find that immigrants as a whole engage in criminal activities less often than the general population. When Ramiro Martinez and his colleagues examined the association between homicide and immigration in San Diego, California, they also found that immigration is negatively associated with homicides.Footnote This research indicates that as the number of immigrants in the population increases, the crime rate may actually decline; in other words, immigration has a suppressor effect on crime. This issue is addressed in more detail in the accompanying Spotlight on Crime Stereotypes box.
Economy/Jobs
Although it seems logical that high unemployment would increase crime rates and that a good economy should reduce criminal activity, especially theft-related crimes, there is actually significant debate over the association between the economy and crime rates.
It is possible that a poor economy actually helps lower crime rates because unemployed parents are at home to supervise children and guard the family’s possessions. Because there is less to spend, a poor economy reduces the number of valuables worth stealing. And it is unlikely that law-abiding, middle-aged workers will suddenly turn to a life of crime if they are laid off during an economic downturn.
It is also possible that over the long haul, a strong economy helps lower crime rates, whereas long periods of sustained economic weakness and unemployment may eventually lead to increased rates: crime skyrocketed in the 1930s during the Great Depression.
One reason for this confusion is that short-term economic swings have different impacts on different segments of the population. When manufacturing moved overseas during the latter half of the twentieth century, it had a much greater impact on young minority men living in cities hit hardest by deindustrialization than on highly educated suburban dwellers who could get jobs in service and technology industries.
Abortion
There is evidence that the recent drop in the crime rate can be attributed to the availability of legalized abortion. In 1973, Roe v. Wade legalized abortion nationwide, and the drop in the crime rate began approximately 18 years later, in 1991. Crime rates began to decline when the first groups of potential offenders affected by the abortion decision began reaching the peak age of criminal activity. It is possible that the link between crime rates and abortion is the result of two mechanisms:
(1)
selective abortion on the part of women most likely to have children who would eventually engage in criminal activity, and
(2)
improved child rearing caused by better maternal, familial, and/or fetal care because women are having fewer children.
Gun Availability
As the number of guns in the population increases, so do violent crime rates. There is evidence that more guns than ever before are finding their way into the hands of young people. Surveys of high school students indicate that up to 10 percent carry guns at least some of the time. As the number of gun-toting students increases, so does the seriousness of violent crime, as happens when a school-yard fight turns into murder.
Gang Membership
According to government sources, there are now 850,000 gang members in the United States. Criminal gangs commit as much as 80 percent of the crime in many communities, including armed robbery, assault, auto theft, drug trafficking, extortion, fraud, home invasions, identity theft, murder, and weapons trafficking. Gang members are far more likely to possess guns than those not affiliated with gangs; criminal activity increases when kids join gangs. Drug-dealing gangs are heavily armed, a condition that persuades non–gang-affiliated kids to arm themselves for self-protection. The result is an arms race that generates an increasing spiral of violence.
Drug Use
As drug use increases, crime rates increase. The surge in the violent crime rate between 1985 and 1993 has been tied directly to the crack cocaine epidemic that swept the nation’s largest cities. Well-armed drug gangs did not hesitate to use violence to control territory, intimidate rivals, and increase market share. When crack use declined in urban areas after 1993, so did crime rates. A sudden increase in drug use may be a harbinger of future increases in the crime rate, especially if guns are easily obtained and the economy is weak.
Media
The jury is still out, but some experts believe that violent media can influence the direction of crime rates. As the availability of media with a violent theme skyrocketed in the 1980s with the introduction of home video players, cable TV, and computer and video games, teen violence rates increased as well. Yet there is more violent video content than ever before and the violence rate has been dropping for the past decade.
Medical Technology
Some crime experts believe that the presence and quality of health care can have a significant impact on murder rates. The big breakthrough occurred in the 1970s, when technology that was developed to treat injured soldiers in Vietnam was applied to trauma care in the nation’s hospitals. Ever since then, fluctuations in the murder rate have been linked to the level and availability of emergency medical services.
Law Enforcement Practices
Reductions in crime rates may be attributed to adding large numbers of police officers and using them in aggressive police practices that target “quality of life” crimes, such as panhandling, graffiti, petty drug dealing, and loitering. By showing that even the smallest infractions will be dealt with seriously, police departments may be able to discourage potential criminals from committing more serious crimes. Cities that encourage focused police work may be able to lower homicide rates in the area. At the other extreme, some researchers have suggested that post-Ferguson “de-policing” may have explained some recent upticks in violent crime around the country. We examine this issue more fully in Chapter 7).
Incarceration
It is also possible that tough laws imposing lengthy prison terms on drug dealers and repeat offenders can affect crime rates. The fear of punishment may inhibit some would-be criminals, and placing a significant number of potentially high-rate offenders behind bars seems to help lower crime rates. As the nation’s prison population has expanded, the crime rate has fallen.
Prisoner Reentry
Even though putting people in prison may have a short-term positive effect on crime rates, in the long run increasing punishments may backfire. The recidivism rate of paroled inmates is quite high, and about two-thirds of those released from state custody will eventually return to prison. Inmates reentering society may have a significant effect on local crime rates, and most reoffend shortly after being released.
Cultural Change
In contemporary society, cultural change (such as increases in the number of single-parent families, high school dropout rates, racial conflict, and teen pregnancies) can affect crime rates. The number of teen pregnancies has declined in recent years and so too has the crime rate.
Criminal Opportunity
As criminal opportunities increase, so do crime rates. The decline in the burglary rate over the past decade may be explained in part by the abundance, and subsequent decline in price, of commonly stolen merchandise such as smartphones and iPads. If the risk of getting caught outweighs the value of the goods, why bother? Improving home and commercial security devices may also discourage would-be burglars, convincing them to turn to other forms of crime, such as theft from motor vehicles. On the other hand, new targets may increase crime rates: subway crime increased in New York when thieves began targeting people carrying iPods and expensive cell phones.
Each of these factors may contribute to shifts in crime rate trends. They also have theoretical implications for social policy. For example, if crime is influenced by economic and justice-related factors, then criminals must be rational decision makers who will choose to commit crime if the need arises and the threat of punishment is limited. Effective crime control efforts might then be linked to convincing prospective offenders that crime does not pay and offering them alternative avenues to economic gain, such as job training and vocational education.
Critical Thinking
While crime rates have been declining in the United States, they have been increasing around the world. Is it possible that factors that correlate with crime rate changes in the United States have little utility in predicting changes in other cultures? What other factors may increase or reduce crime rates?
