Tag: optimal alphas and betas
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What is the point estimate for the next unknown period? What is the 95% confidence interval estimate?
EXERCISE Open Excel on your desktop, and load the forecast Excel file. Using that stream of data and the same assumptions about handling the smoothed and trending portions of the early periods of the data stream, optimize the forecast by sequentially: 1) finding the alpha (to the nearest increment of 0.05) that produces the lowest…